Hypothetical Bias

release the kracken!

as i am hacking away at the computer trying to find a t-statistic bigger than 2, my wife is watching dancing with the stars.  our next contestant is harry hamlin, and the pre-commercial teaser references something about "battling the kracken". talk about a cross-demographic reference:  i would wager that in all the demographics older than 25, males 25-34 is probably the lowest watcher of this stupid ballroom dancing crap (i'd rather watch something on HGTV. or even I-AA football.). but a reference to the award-winning* clash of the titans, and harry's legendary depiction of perseus, is sure to bring these big spenders to the show in droves. if the slinky outfits on the women don't.  (by the way: laurence olivier: clash of the titans :: marlon brando : superman, the movie)

* burgess meredith apparently won something called the saturn award for supporting actor.  however, clash of the titans was also nominated for special effects. really?  even for 1981 technology, i can do better effects now with my cell phone.

Student emails

I got this one today:

I am having trouble finding the online quiz.  Could you please email me back asap.

ASAP!

I didn't drink beer alone in my room all week

Four nights in Lake Placid and the Saranac growler when unopened. In a burst of inspiration, I gave it to some grad students. My good deed. I find out that only AFS governing board members got the growlers. As if confirmed, I am a very important person, IMHO (president of the socioeconomics section, ~130 members, of AFS, ~10,000 members).

Some more travel notes at the AFS meetings in Lake Placid:

1. Coffeenerdness (with apologies to Peter King): I like a small coffee with two espressos shots (i.e., double red eye, black eye) when I'm conferencing. I hit the local, non-Starbucks coffee shop, and ask for same and get a weird look from the barista. This is a bad sign, the barista should know all the sick combinations. The guy at the register tells me $4.04, I look in my wallet and say, "oops, I forgot my discount card." A joke, right? He stares me down until I hand over the $4 and in a minor rebellion, I dig the $.04 out of the penny jar on the counter. The coffee is great ... The next day I hit the same spot. In line in front of me is a guy getting a blueberry muffin. He asks the same guy if he has a microwave or something to heat the muffin up. The guy says: "no" without looking up from the register. The following day I go to Starbucks. The double redeye is $3.50.
2. Why do some conferences charge $395 for registration in exchange for free mediocre food (and long lines) at nightly socials. The beer has been totally free this year, and good beer at that (see below), but still. The last night I bagged the social and hit Jimmy's 21, an Italian Restaurant. I went to Paul's Steakhouse first, sat at the bar for 5 minutes with no service and left. Great food and service at Jimmy's. A bartender from the sports bar next door came in and said hi to the bartender. On his way out he said "Hey, don't work to hard." Jimmy's bartender said "Hey, stay out of trouble." Classic male exchange.
3. Growing up in Boone, NC I've always appreciated the winter sports: skiing, ski jumping, bobsled, etc.* Sunday morning I took a tour of the Olympic venues. The amazing thing is the 12 year olds from all over the world doing flips on skis and landing in the pool and flying down the 90m ski jump and landing out astroturf-type stuff with running water so they'll slide. You can also take a bobsled ride on wheels (50+ mph).
4. At the first night social, two local breweries had the free beer. The Lake Placid Brewery had the long lines, hence, better beer? After the line died down I chose the 46'er IPA -- too citrusy for me. The short lines belonged to Olde Saratoga Brewery [be sure to click on the non-website, whazzupwiddat?], owned by Mendocino, where I visited early. I thought the IPA was awesome. Great to sip while standing in long lines waiting for free, mediocre food. I drank 17** of these 12 oz beers during the 3 hour social. Maybe that's why the Lake Placid IPA wasn't so great. Diminishing returns and all that.
5. One more thing: while standing in a long food line, a british-sounding lady had a plate of italian food (e.g., pizza). She offered me a slice (was I staring?). Embarrassed I say "no, thanks." Next thing I know she tells her friends that it is not that good and she walks towards the garbage can. Hmmm, what should I do? I let her toss it and then when she gets back in line I say: "You know, I would've eaten it if I knew you were going to throw it away." She says: "Why didn't you say anything!" I say (smiling): "I decided it would be more fun to tell you that I would've eaten it if you hadn't thrown it away." She gets the joke. Later, I see her at a crafty booth and we're looking at a bag of something that looks like those bags of shredded money from the Fed. I ask her how come they're allowed to sell pot out in the open like that. I then tell her that I'll leave her alone the rest of the night. The following night she offers me a mini-quiche from off her plate. I decline, gratiously.
6. I catch the 5:30 am flight out of Saranac Lake airport. I'm glad I gave away the growler.

Notes:

*I moved to Boone at the age of 41. In Boone, there is no bob in sled but we do have skiiing. But no ski jumping.

**Actually, I had 2.

The 10 Spot and The Office

Just in case you missed this "The Ten Spot" doing "The Office" and the sports celebs. It's, er, funny. E.G.:

Meredith drinks too much and sometimes likes to get naked when she's tipsy, such as when she disrobed in Michael's office during the Christmas party. We must confess that we'd never heard of Lions assistant coach Cullen until this week, but he allegedly shares the same drinking-and-stripping affliction.

I'm in Lake Placid

Some observations:

1. It's not easy to get from Boone, NC to Lake Placid, NY. First, you gotta do a two hour car ride from Boone to Greensboro (PTI). This ride is usually helped along by some groovy tunes. This day, it's Ass Ponys, Scott Miller and Neko Case. Next, PTI to Boston (there is absolutely no connecting terminal info on my boarding pass or widescreen airport TVs. I get in line at the service desk. I'm first in line but none of the service desk employees, 4 of them, even look at me for 10 minutes. At some point I'm noticed [just like high school] and I'm directed to terminal C. It is, truly, a rat's maze from terminal A to C in the Logan airport. Truly, I say, cheese is served at terminal C.) Logan to Saranac Lake airport and then a 30 minute cab ride to Lake Placid.
2. I check into the Hilton and walk another rat's maze to my room. I enter the room and turn on the lights. On the table is a growler (1 quart) of Saranac Pale Ale. This would never happen at an econ conference. Never. Well, maybe Jim Heckman gets a growler at the ASSAs. Or Barro.
3. This part is just sad. I'm wondering what I'm going to do with the growler of Saranac Pale Ale. Actually, I'm wondering when I'll be able to walk around my room in my underwear and drink the whole damn thing by myself because the GD drapes to my room won't shut and only a thin gauzy curtain separates me from the courtyard and everyone can see me in my underwear if my lights are on at night. Suddenly, I find the solution! I'll turn off the lights and drink the growler in my underwear. Tomorrow night. GD-it.
4. After a walk downtown and a couple of egg rolls, I head back for some much deserved rest. Then I hear it. A live band in the hotel bar. Great band: covers of Stevie Ray Vaughn, Allman Bros, that Irish guy who sings brown eyed girl, Mustang Sally (is that the band or the song?) and other oldies designed to get people who shouldn't dance in public to dance in public. And, I'm thinking, its great to see people doing the best that they can do.
5. The band: I think their name is "Older than most." A bunch of gray hairs who announce that they have a CD coming out (it took 6 years, they say). Dave Wannstedt is on lead guiter and a Whitney Houston-ish lead singer can sing but can't dance, just like Whitney. They're really fun, honest, but take a break at 12. The bar emptys except me and then, embarrassed, I leave too. No one is there and I'm in my room typing, fully clothed because of the thin gauze, when I hear the steady bass and screaming guitar of a lounge band ... I'm going to see if they are playing by themselves ...
6. ... nope, an audience of four. I get the inside scoop from the bartenders. The band loves their job. So much so, that in order to subvert the bar's (Dancing Bears Lounge) policy of rotating the bands, they'll book themselves under different names on subsequent weekends. Actually, the different bands/names have slightly different lineups. Maybe that is why the lead singer doesn't know the bass player's name (she had to ask the band leader for the poor guy's name when she intro'd his solo). Or, again from the bartender, we're not sure that she only tinkles the bathroom on her breaks. wink. wink.